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FanGraphs Chat 8211 9-25-13

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:36 am    Post subject: FanGraphs Chat 8211 9-25-13 Reply with quote

12:03Comment From juan pierres mustacheVerlander is officially a no. 2, right? 200+ innings is a huge sample.12:03Dave Cameron: No, its not.12:04Comment From ZachAnecdotally, it appears as though weve seen an uptick in fantastic seasons by RPs (Kimbrel, Jansen, Holland, Uehara, etc.). Do you think it has almost anything to do with the concurrence of two factors 1) they are high-K specialists and a pair of) hitters are more tolerant of Ks? Basically, the highest-K pitchers separate themselves in the rest of the pack when hitters are striking out more often overall. This might be ridiculous. I just thought of it 10 seconds before I typed it.12:04Dave Cameron: I think weve seen an enormous uptick in velocity in MLB, so we po se s a whole couple of guys who can throw 100.12:04Comment From JasonWhat will Choo and Pence enter FA?12:04Dave Cameron: Ill gue s 5/75 for Choo, 6/90 for Pence.12:05Comment From tDoes Trevor Rosenthal get a shot in the rotation the coming year?12:05Dave Cameron: My prediction is he spends his career in the pen.12:05Comment From juan pierres mustacheEllsbury: Over/Under $70M for him this offseason?12:05Dave Cameron: Way, way over.12:06Comment From ColinHow much does base running factor in to the new Offense metric when compared with hitting?12:06Dave Cameron: You can go to the worth section and find out just how much of Offense is Batting/Baserunning for each player.12:06Comment From Paul AllenWhy one thing offensive stats can fluctuate a great deal and no one appears to care, but UZR and defensive metrics fluctuate and critics cry about how exactly usele s the stats are? Cant a fielder have a season where he mi ses some throws or doesnt get to as numerous fly balls, or will we expect fielders to be robots and field every ball exactly the same every time?12:06Dave Cameron: Because people dont enjoy having their preconceived ideas challenged.12:09Dave Cameron: Sorry if chat is slower today my internet connection is horrible at this time.12:09Comment From GuestWhat do you consider of the concept of reducing part of shared revenue for teams that lose to punish teams for not trying to place a winning team on the field?12:10Dave Cameron: I think its a good idea for the teams with many different money along with a terrible one for smaller to middle market teams.12:10Comment From Prich% of pitchers that return from labrum i sues? 33% More Le s?12:10Dave Cameron: Way le s. Like 1%.12:10Comment From NickWhos had a better 2013, Votto or Goldschmidt?12:10Dave Cameron: Tie.12:11Comment From AndrewA a key point you didnt addre s in your economic analysis of where to live: time. You might be right that with the cost of living considered, the great deli acro s the street really costs $50 a sandwich, money that may be better spent traveling the planet and eating amazing meals. But most people with jobs dont po se s the free time needed to live like that. Its a lot more efficient, not economically but certainly when it comes to time, travel, etc., to have many good options (not just for food, but culture, entertainment, etc.) near you compared to you to always visit them.12:13Dave Cameron: Having lived in both a metropolitan city as well as in an urban area of the approximately 200 thousand, my experience is the fact that many people dont take advantage of their proximity to things, and in general, devote about the same portion of their time to perusing their city either way.12:15Comment From GuestAll things being equal, should Cole function as the Pirates #1 and begin the wild-card game if his Sunday start isnt nece sary?12:15Dave Cameron: No. Liriano may be the easy choice against the Reds.12:15Comment From Sgt. PepperDonaldson seems to be benefiting from MVP talk in the mainstream media. Do you think he finishes in the 5 best? Could he beat Trout?12:16Dave Cameron: No with no. Hell acquire some love in the san francisco bay area voters and a couple of random SABR leaning writers, however i bet he finishes approximately 7-10.12:16Dave Cameron: And doesnt even show up on a lot of ballots.12:17Comment From JEFFWWhat is Matt Moore doing diverse from what he did within the minors, to produce this type of high BB rate? Is he going to ever improve?12:17Dave Cameron: He had serious walk problems in the minors too.12:17Comment From Jimwhat would you mean through the yankees have a different IRR than everybody else?12:18Dave Cameron: IRR is an economic term meaning internal rate of return. Basically, this means the Yankees valuations of things are different than other teams. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_rate_of_return12:18Comment From TimMariano Riveras hall of fame case. Go.12:19Dave Cameron: So clearly the best reliever ever that if you dont vote for him you are stating that no reliever should ever make the Hall.12:20Comment From Sgt. PepperYou could look at the old FLD metric and see roughly how much WAR it was worth. If Julius Peppers Jersey Cabrera would be a -15, his defense cost him roughly 1.5 WAR (as far as I understand). Cant he same be achieved for the new Def stat do the same?12:20Dave Cameron: Your premise is wrong. Cabreras defense is definitely an a set, not really a liability, because hes only -15 compared to a very good group of defenders. Looking at defense, including position, gives you a better understanding of where his value came from.12:21Comment From Jimare there diminishing marginal returns with scoring runs? should a group look to add run prevention (pitching, defense) if it already scores a lot of run?12:21Dave Cameron: The diminishing returns dont start working until levels that are way beyond what we actually see in real life. In practicality, a run is really a run.12:21Comment From GregWhats the easiest method to get involved in the baseball operations at a major league organization?12:22Dave Cameron: Participate in the big leagues. Short of this, be related to someone with hiring power. Short of this, get lucky.12:22Comment From greggwhy doesnt bill gates just buy a team after which double the amount best offer for all those free agents he wants?12:22Dave Cameron: He would rather attempt to help the world.12:23Comment From DerekMore reasonable o/u on Ellsbury: 8/160?12:23Dave Cameron: I dont think hell get eight years. Id gue s 6/130 or 7/150.12:24Comment From JBGive me expect the Mariners please.12:24Dave Cameron: GMs end up fired. They just delayed the inevitable, but change will come.12:25Comment From OrangeWould Matt Carpenter win the NL MVP in an alternate reality where Andrew McCutchen doesnt exist?12:25Dave Cameron: No, and that i doubt he even finishes in the top 5.12:25Comment From JakeAlex Cobb or David Price: If you had a 1-gm playoff coupled with to choose, can you take part in the hot-hand(Cobb, that has also had the better overall yr) or the staff-ace in Price(that has more big-game succe s)?12:25Dave Cameron: Hot hands are myths. You opt for the better pitcher, and thats Price.12:26Comment From Sgt. PepperGuys around the radio today a serted the Yanks should let Cano go and sign two pitchers because starters win you ballgames and position players dont. Lets provide them with the benefit of the doubt and say they need the Yanks to sign two three win players with the money they'd spend on Cano. Its still wrong right? Costs equal, its still better to have one six win player than two three win ones right?12:26Dave Cameron: Not really, no.12:26Comment From GarethHow does the Carolinas rate when compared to Northwest / Seattle?12:27Dave Cameron: Some huge advantages, primarily related to living costs. Some huge disadvantages, mostly a sociated with weather humidity is the worst and insufficient acce s to stuff you will find in a bigger city. For someone who works from home, though, I cant justify make payment on big city premium.12:28Comment From BradLink for this economic analysis of where to live?12:28Dave Cameron: It was a topic within the podcast on Monday.12:28Comment From GarethYou may come see a Tribe game the coming year. They've a yearly event called Puppypalooza, where one can bring your Dog. Its very well done.12:28Dave Cameron: Lots of minor league teams do that, and refer to it as Bark within the Park or something similar.12:29Comment From run producerDid you realize As never went worse than 74-88 under Beane? I've found it nearly as fascinating as winning 6 AL West titles, avoiding a disaster season many years. In fact only three teams havent lost a minimum of 90 games since 1998 Yankees, Cardinals, As.12:29Dave Cameron: I think comprehending the concepts analytics teach MyCole Pruitt Jersey are most likely better at providing a floor than raising the ceiling. In other words, these things dont guarantee championships, however they make awful teams much le s likely.12:30Comment From Sgt. PepperWhos the next guy to obtain the whirlwind retirement tour? My moneys on Jeter or Ichiro.12:30Dave Cameron: Jeters the most obvious pick.12:31Comment From chuckbAre them best using Rosenthal within the 9th or going w/ Axford instead and taking advantage of Rosenthal in the 7th or 8th within the highest leverage situation? What should they do, not what's going to they are doing?12:31Dave Cameron: They used Motte for six out saves last year, no reason they cant perform the same with Rosenthal.12:31Comment From LuisIs it fair that mainstream writers are crushing the Astros and even while using word tanking? All they seem to be doing is speeding up the entire proce s of being good and truly competitive again. Could they be designed to sign overpriced free agents so that they can instead win 65-70 games?12:32Dave Cameron: A lot of mainstream coverage comes from experience in a beat writing role. Beat writers have a big incentive to push for any watchable, entertaining product, since they have to cover the team every single day. Their interests are not aligned with team wins.12:33Comment From StevenlyAre platoon tactics (like the As) le s efficient within the playoffs than over a full season?12:33Dave Cameron: I havent seen any evidence this is true.12:33Comment From person hscerHaren o/u 1/8?12:33Dave Cameron: Sounds about right.12:34Comment From chuckbShould the Cards use Wacha within the rotation and Kelly in the pen or vice-versa within the playoffs?12:34Dave Cameron: I believe Wacha is better, so Id give him more innings, however the starter/reliever distinction should mostly go away in October.12:35Comment From chuckbCarolina has humidity? Houston says hello. When they are saying everythings bigger in Texas, they mean the mosquitos and A/C bills.12:36Dave Cameron: Yeah, we certainly dont have the worst humidity levels, but summer here is pretty lame.12:36Dave Cameron: Fall and spring are amazing thought.12:36Comment From stuck inside a slumpok, not sure if i understand miggy at 3B is bad defensively since the bar is set so high by others, but his defense continues to be an a set? why don't you move him to SS then?12:36Dave Cameron: Nobody has ever said Miggys defense is an a set.12:37Comment From GregIs there anyone studying the game-theory facets of pitching? One of the things Ive always wanted to know is when much a pitchers best pitches take advantage of him throwing his poor pitches and just what the perfect balance is between variety and specialization in terms of pitch throwing. Is anyone working on that?12:37Dave Cameron: A lot of people have written relating to this. Matt Swartz has been doing several talks on the subject, for instance.12:38Comment From stuck in a slumpthe nats have bark in the park too, plenty of fun12:38Comment From GaryCardinals po se s a Bark in the Park too12:39Comment From AJIs there a parallel to Leverage Index, but for games i.e. if a game has more or le s of the effect on the Postseason Probability %. It is needed quantify the concept of must win12:39Dave Cameron: Studes checked out this a few years ago, named it Championship Probability Added, I believe.12:40Comment From person hscerJayson Werths contract: not blindingly awful anymore?12:40Dave Cameron: Yeah, its an overpay, but not an egregious. one.12:40Comment From RSquaredRE: Vottos pa sivity. The anti-walk crowd appear to think that patient batters with a good hit tool should expand the zone if needed. But staying within their zone built them into good hitters. What shall we be held mi sing?12:40Dave Cameron: Nothing. The anti-walk crowd simply want to evaluate hitters by RBIs.12:41Comment From NickIf the Seattle Times beat writer position were provided to you, can you take it?12:41Dave Cameron: No interest in as being a beat writer.12:41Comment From RichieYou mean beat writers interests ARE very closely aligned with CURRENT team wins, dont you?12:41Dave Cameron: Yeah, that was a typo.12:41Comment From BensonDo Sternbergs comments yesterday e sentially be certain that Prices are done like a Ray following this season?12:41Dave Cameron: I think that was already guaranteed.12:42Comment From GregWhat do you think from the concept that platoons take up roster spots that could otherwise be employed for pinch-hitters, defensive replacements, etc. and thus limit decision-making flexibility within a game? Real concern or overstated?12:42Dave Cameron: If youre platooning, then you definitely automatically have a pinch-hitter on the bench.12:42Comment From Baseball Richard Dent Jersey FanThe Indians will make the playoffs this year having a 36-52 record against teams with winning records. Because of the unbalanced schedule, at least 3 teams better than them will be going home because they had to play one another.
If you will find likely to be 2 wild cards spread over 3 divisions, do you think that MLB will change the yearly schedules to help make the races a bit more level?12:43Dave Cameron: Games against losing teams count too. Your decision to exclude those in the calculation is faulty.12:44Comment From JayTThe weather conditions are the main reason I have no intentions of ever leaving the SF Bay Area. I understand that I could love a great deal cheaper elsewhere, but I get to enjoy the weather every day, and thats well worth the extra $50K the housing costs a year.12:45Dave Cameron: Obviously, its different for everybody, and depends a great deal on your lifestyle, job, family situation, etc I love free airline coast, and will probably return west some day, but the economic incentives for an individual who works at home to reside in the southeast are extremely high.12:45Comment From stuck in a slumpperhaps i misunderstood whenever you said Cabreras defense is definitely an a set, not a liability, because hes only -15 over a excellent number of defenders. Looking at defense, including position, provides you with a better knowledge of where his value came from.12:45Dave Cameron: Asdrubal Cabrera, not Miguel Cabrera.12:46Dave Cameron: There's several Cabrera in MLB.12:46Comment From RichieWhere can I read Matt Swartz nowadays? Hes the very best ever (nothing personal, actually).12:46Dave Cameron: Hes talking to a large league team, so most of his work is from the public eye now.12:47Comment From person hscerChances Harper ever surpa ses Trout in career WAR now? Negligable? I really hope its not that low but12:47Dave Cameron: Not negligable, given the chances Trout includes a career ending injury and Harper doesnt. A +15 WAR lead isnt insurmountable if one guy plays quite a long time and the other doesnt.12:48Comment From BensonDo teams need to declare a 25 man roster for that wildcard playoff game only? If that's the case, that team should probably opt for 15 or 16 position players for the game, correct?12:48Dave Cameron: I have faith that they can reset their rosters between the WC game and the DS, yes, so yeah, it should probably be 15 position players, 1 starter, and 9 relievers.12:49Comment From JohnThe coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in SF Twain12:49Dave Cameron: First Giants game I ever attended in SF was at the center of summer also it was like 40 degrees during the night.12:49Comment From JayIf the Nats wanted to move Soriano this winter could they find a taker because of the vesting option he has?12:50Dave Cameron: Probably, when they ate some of the money.12:50Comment From BretGiven the return they got for James Shiels, whos going to be capable of meeting the Rays um, price, for Price?12:50Dave Cameron: That trade didnt set the market price for other teams who knew that trade was lunacy.12:50Comment From BillyWe have play-off odds for individual teams, but what were the chances of having a tie for that AL wildcard this year and requiring an additional playoff game with the teams that were in it?12:50Dave Cameron: Theres actually a tab on the playoff odds page that lists the odds of a tie.12:51Comment From gHaving lived in a capital of scotland- about ~20k and NYC, I could not disagree more with your a sertion that individuals dont make use of their proximity to things anecdotally youre millions of percent wrong12:51Dave Cameron: A town of 20K is really a different story. I think the diminishing returns when you are into an actual city with stop lights and grocery stores and so on start working quickly.12:52Comment From PersonGiven what Mitch Moreland has been doing this year, if you were Jon Daniels would you consider trading for Adam LaRoche?12:52Dave Cameron: How much money are the Nationals eating in this deal?12:52Comment From ScottDo you think James Paxton is incorporated in the rotation at the outset of next season for that Mariners?12:52Dave Cameron: Barring injury, yes. I still dont think the command is a good example for him to stick like a starter long term.12:53Dave Cameron: At least, not a very good one.12:53Comment From BillyI find something odd concerning the new fielding metric. Shane Victorino and Brett Gardner have posted very similar defensive numbers in CF (slightly above average) and through time around the corners (elite). This leads me to believe their outfielding ablities offer a similar experience overall. However, Victorino gets an 18.3 while Gardner gets a 1.1. I would think they're similarly valuable defensively. Why is this?12:54Dave Cameron: Youre conflating abilities and performance. It can be both true that Gardner and Victorino are similar defenders, but have experienced different values as defensive players in 2013. Defensive performance isn't a constant.12:54Comment From GuestWhat kind of deal will Ervin Santana get the coming year?12:54Dave Cameron: 4/60.12:54Comment From IADoes Fangraphs know where most readers are from / teams they root for. Any hotspots or perhaps is it pretty spread out?12:55Dave Cameron: Its basically what youd expect. A lot of NYC/BOS/LA/CHC readers, after which almost every city with a team is decently represented.12:56Comment From TristanLooking into the off-season, do you think the Cards and Dbacks complement on a trade for Owings/Gregorious? Especially after Ownings has produced a good September, what sort of return could AZ see?12:57Dave Cameron: Seems po sible, however i doubt STL has even given two thoughts to what they may do at SS in 2014 yet.12:57Comment From bobo hollomanAre you riding with K. Law on the Ryan Jackson train?12:58Dave Cameron: I dont think thats a Ryan Jackson train around it is an anyone but Kozma bus.12:58Comment From JEBDo you think there's a city which has too many teams/or is undeserving of a team? Do you consider Charlotte must have a profe sional baseball team?12:59Dave Cameron: Charlottes weird. Its not a great sports town, and also the sprawl is so awful that its not actually that easy to get to the stadiums for many of those who live in the metropolitan area. Id place a team in Brooklyn before I put one in Charlotte.12:59Comment From BretDoes Halladay obtain a Major League Contract next season?12:59Dave Cameron: Absolutely.1:00Comment From GarethIt makes me sad that the Indians may lose both Kazmir and Ubaldo to Free Agency.1:00Dave Cameron: A suming Ubaldo opts out, hes going to be a fascinating QO decision. They should probably give it to him, however i dont understand what kind of market hell command with compensation attached Christian Jones Jersey .1:01Comment From GregOutlook for Josh Johnson? Could he be next years Liriano?1:01Dave Cameron: Depends upon health, that is basically unknowable externally.1:01Comment From JonChances Z trades Taijuan Walker this offseason inside a desperation move (when we all clearly know Walker could be a HUGE a part of future)1:01Dave Cameron: Slim. I think they just throw money in their problems.1:01Comment From Titus AndronicusWhat should be the Rockies # 1 priority for that off-season?1:01Dave Cameron: Get better players.1:02Comment From BXDefinitely accept diminishing returns between a mid-sized city along with a huge urban center. Particularly if the huge ma sive city has poor riding on the bus and visitors are badmaking it harder/more expensive to reach places.1:03Dave Cameron: Yeah, visitors are a fairly serious impediment for a lot of people who reside in the suburban areas of a large city. I grew up ~10 miles from downtown Seattle, but my parents hardly ever took us there since it was a 30-40 minute drive in rush hour.1:03Comment From Shark MapiroHow long does a player need to accept/reject a QO?1:04Dave Cameron: A week. The QO has to be made inside a couple of days around the globe Series ending, and so the player has 7 days to go test his market and decide whether to accept or decline.1:04Dave Cameron: Okay, thats it for me personally this week. Chat schedule will change a little starting next week with playoff live blogs, but well have some regular Q&As as well. Thanks for hanging out everyone.
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