Joined: 28 Aug 2017
|Posted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:33 am Post subject: A Look at Workhorse Pitchers
|Earlier now, as a direct consequence from the big Royals-Rays trade focused on Wil Myers and James Shields, Dave Cameron wrote about the perception of relative risk regarding veterans and top prospects. One i sue in this case is the supposed longevity of a workhorse pitcher like James Shields. Dave rightly noticed that although prospects are risky, there is risk related to any player, even a supposedly reliable pitcher. I wanted to look a little more closely at these workhorse pitchers. After a number of seasons of 200 or more innings, the number of innings do such pitchers set up in the subsequent seasons?
I should note at Deuce McAllister Jersey the outset that this is not a very formal study. I think that the information presented here has value, but simply do not want to make exaggerated claims for its rigor or predictive value. For instance, I made quantity of a sumptions that are somewhat arbitrary and could probably be enhanced, although I did have my reasons for making them.
I make no claims for this study being revolutionary, nor do I expect any surprising results. It is a pretty safe a sumption that if a pitcher has pitched lots of innings for a few years, he'll probably do so in the following year. However, it is usually worth checking things out to see if those a sumptions are as safe as we think. With this out of the way, lets see what I found.
The very first thing I wanted to do was obtain a rough meaning of workhorse, or a pitcher that has pitched a consistently many innings for a few seasons in a row. This presents numerous i sues. To begin with, innings pitched is definitely an imperfect measure. A pitcher could easily get a higher or lower quantity of innings from season to season based on a number of factors. It could be due to injury, obviously. However the pitcher may also have the same raw ability to throw the same number of pitches, but is le s capable in getting outs per pitch. The pitchers ability (perceived Ashaad Mabry Jersey or real) to prevent runs might be better or worse, and thus the pitcher gets moved up or down in the rotation, or is pretty much prone to have his turn skipped. Additional factors could be mentioned, but this gets the point acro s.
Despite those i sues, innings pitched is commonly used, does not appear to be worse than other candidates, and it is admittedly composite nature makes it ideal for research like this, which is intended to be a normal one that does note try to isolate factors for example performance and injury.
Finding a meaning of workhorse pitcher is another i sue. My idea to start with pitchers who had pitched 200 or even more innings three seasons in a row, for example, ran up against the obvious problem that pitchers accustomed to pitch much more innings compared to what they do in contemporary baseball. However, the higher the sample, the greater informative the research might be. Since 1955 (the conventional beginning of the Retrosheet Era), there have been 807 cases of three 200-plus innings seasons consecutively. However, back in the day, it was not really a huge deal. Wilbur Wood threw more than 300 innings for four seasons consecutively from 1971 to 1974, as well as in 1975 he threw 291. That is probably worth an article by itself, but as the earlier eras is a good idea, for any simple study like this one that is concerned with contemporary starting pitchers, le s.
As a somewhat arbitrary dividing line, I decided to make use of 1980 the last year where a pitcher (Steve Carlton) threw 300 or more innings. It is true that the top starting pitchers even in the 1980s threw more innings than the top starters today. Once we might find, though, it doesn't make a huge difference for my purposes.
Lets reach some actual data. I took all cases of pitchers pitching 200 or even more innings 3 years consecutively since 1981 and looked at what they did within the fourth season. Some seasons and pitchers can be used more than once, e.g., James Shields 2007-2009 and 2008-2010 both count as separate series of three seasons. I additionally excluded significantly strike-shortened seasons as po sibilities for that fourth year (it made a positive change). I discovered 351 cases of this from 1981.
Since 1981 there has been 351 installments of three straight 200+ inning seasons. Within the fourth year, those pitchers pitched typically 86.1 % their average quantity of innings for that previous three years. In other words, if a pitcher pitched 600 innings over three seasons, in fourth season, if he would happen to be average Drew Brees Jersey in this way, he would have pitched about 172 innings.
Does it make a big difference if restrict our sample to some more recent period of time? This really is worth looking at because top starting pitchers are pitching fewer innings than they were 20 or 3 decades ago. Since 1991, there has been 182 cases of 200 or even more innings pitched over a season. Within the fourth year, those pitchers averaged 87.1 percent of the average of the three previous seasons. Since 2001, there has been 106 cases, and the fourth-year average has been about 88.7 percent from the average innings pitched in the three prior years. There's been some change, however it doesn't seem to be terribly dramatic, so we may use the bigger sample without an exce sive amount of concern.
Of those 351 cases, in 93 (about 26 %) of them the pitchers increased their fourth year innings over their previous three-year average, although that is not surprising given what the average turned out to be. Most, obviously, decreased, but how risky is that group?
Of the 258 who decreased in year four, 167 (about 65 %) pitched a minimum of 80 percent of the prior-three-year average, 63 (about 24 percent) pitched between 50 and 80 % of this average. From the total number of 258, only 28 (about 11 percent) pitched not even half of the three-year average innings in the fourth year. One could break this down further, but the story seems pretty clear: even of the decliners, over fifty percent (percent) retain at least 80 % of the previous level of endurance, and just about ten percent visit a dramatic collapse to not even half of the previous average.
Another interesting way of looking at this would be to find out if there's much of a difference by age. Here's that average fourth year average percent vary from the prior three-year average grouped by age, where n may be the number of instances:
4th agen4th2210.72242411.01662581.039126210.867527320.901728310.930729440.88930340.866331310.830932300.888533280.817334150.872835150.799336150.76153790.89523880.80953930.724060.84314180.65854220.9084340.68064420.87854611.01464710.99044810.6425Obviously, at the extreme ends the sample is really tiny as not to be useful: on a single end we've Doc Gooden as the whole sample, alternatively (late thirties and forties) we have Phil Nierko. The sample is not exactly giant in the age-ranges from the late twenties to the early thirties, but a minimum of there's more there. We basically begin to see the sorts of things we would expect: players with their Delvin Breaux Jersey fourth year coming prior to 30 visit a smaller drop-off in innings compared to those seeing their fourth year after 30. Starting at approximately 29, the drop-off from the three-year average is usually between 10 and 15 percent, and gets closer to 20 % because the thirties progre s. Be careful not to drawn in by the shrinking sample sizes and selection bias in the late thirties data!
One thing to remember in this admittedly limited study is it shouldn't be used to say anything about pitcher aging or endurance generally, because it deliberately selected pitchers who have pitched large numbers of innings, and were allowed to achieve this for a reason. However, it could tell us something by what don't be surprised from workhorse pitchers and just how many innings they may be expected to pitch.
Even pitchers who've consistently set up 200 or more innings for three seasons inside a have pitched Ten to fifteen percent fewer than the average of these 3 years within the fourth year. Despite the fact that drop-off, we've also found it to be rare that they have a collapse whether due to health or ineffectivene s that causes these to pitch much le s than they had in the previous three years. About two-thirds of those pitchers pitch at last 80 % of average innings from the previous years, and only about one-tenth pitched le s than half of the innings. Quite simply, relying on that 200-plus inning pitcher to do this year after year is overly optimistic. However, neverthele s there is a fair quantity of risk, chances are that the workhorse is not going to fall apart, either. And, unsurprisingly, younger the pitcher is, the greater.
As a final note, I wish to try to narrow down the population a little more to find out if we can find something more specific to James Shields, many from the original inspiration with this work. After all, Shields has put in six seasons Justin Drescher Jersey consecutively of 200-plus innings. Since 1981, there has been 64 instances where a pitcher pitched a minimum of 200 innings six seasons consecutively and are available back for a seventh. In that seventh seasons, they've pitched an typically 88 percent of their average seasonal innings from the previous six years. That's a bit better, although not all that different from the three-year instances.
Naturally, case an over-all study. For predicting the durability and effectivene s a sociated with a particular pitcher, you might want to take a look at specifics for example velocity, repertoire, and so forth. But just exploring the overall population of consistent workhorses from the past 30 years, while Shields and his contemporary brethren can be expected to pitch fewer innings as a group, they are unlikely to collapse en ma se, either.